Last time they failed to crush the Chechens. Will Russia succeed this time?
by Melvin Rhodes
It's a scenario reminiscent of Vietnam
30 years ago-television news footage of the covered corpses of young men
sent to fight a faraway war against a people with a different culture.
This time it's not Southeast Asia and Americans are not involved. Now
the war is in the Caucasus, in the southern part of the Russian Federation.
The dead soldiers being sent home are Russians-officially over 500 dead
at the time of this writing, but many sources put it much higher. The
war they are fighting is taking longer than expected, and the victory
is as elusive as it was for America in the 1960s.
Once again, a major power is fighting a
conflict against what is seemingly a minor force. Six years ago it
tried to crush the Chechens and failed, but then Russia itself was
in chaos. Now it's better organized and has sent the full force of
its military might against the Chechens.
Will they win this time? Recent history
is not very encouraging for Russia.
From the time of Peter the Great 300 years
ago right through much of the 1800s Russia was an expanding empire,
a powerful monolithic state that conquered all before it and ruthlessly
suppressed revolt.
A checkered history
In the early years of the 20th century, in
1904-5, Russia fought a war with Japan. The whole of Europe expected mighty
Russia to win this little war, with little difficulty. But Russia lost
heavily to Japan, a major embarrassment at a time of European domination
of Asia and the rest of the world. It was the first of many heavy defeats
in the century to follow. A review of the main conflicts Russia fought
during the century is helpful as we consider the outcome of the current
war.
A few years after its loss to Japan, confident
after years of industrial expansion, Russia went to war against Germany
and Austria alongside its allies Britain and France. But Russia was
to be the first of the warring parties to sue for peace. Following
a total collapse of the social order that had given the country stability
for over three centuries, Lenin seized power, creating the world's
first communist state. One of his first moves was to seek peace with
Germany. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk was signed in 1918 and ceded much
territory to the Germans, also freeing the Axis allies up on the eastern
front to concentrate their military might against the Western allies.
Russia had lost almost two million men in the First World War. It was
to lose hundreds of thousands more in the Civil War that followed as
the Red (communist) Army fought against the Whites (Czarist forces).
