by Darris McNeely, Cecil Maranville and John Ross Schroeder
Global Intelligence Update Decade
Forecasts
Stratfor, Inc. issued a series of forecasts for the coming decade for
key areas of the world. They are well worth reading.
Aging U.S. baby boomers: The first
is for the United States. Stratfor foresees continued prosperity for the
U.S. for the first half of the decade, with a potential downturn beginning
after 2005. Two outstanding aspects of the analysis focus upon the changing
demographics of the U.S. population and the indicators of the current
political winds blowing through the presidential election campaign. When
the baby boomers cease to invest in 401k's and begin to withdraw their
retirements, this will profoundly dampen the markets. Regarding presidential
politics, Stratfor notes that the philosophy of the fringes often has
been a precursor of mainstream thought. On that basis, they speculate
that the U.S. will grow increasingly isolationist-not in the next administration,
but in subsequent ones.
Asian military increasingly important: The
second region analyzed was Asia and Japan. Declaring that the future of
Asia depends upon the largest nation and the largest economy, Stratfor
centers its predictions upon China, the largest nation, and Japan, the
largest economy. A glance backward reminds us that Asia recently seemed
to be ready to surpass the U.S. economically, only to become embroiled
in serious crises. "Asia will emerge from the current economic crisis
in a markedly changed condition, but it will remain an influential and
potentially dangerous region." The forecast sees potential national fragmentation
in China. Japan is strengthening its military with a current defense budget
of $35 billion, surpassed only by the U.S. and Russia. The generation
now assuming power in Japan will be less encumbered by past negatives.
The Asians will look to create a political framework after the European
model.
